USDRUB, H4 & Every day
The Kremlin has confirmed that the Putin-Biden summit will kick off in Geneva, Switzerland at 11 am GMT on June 16. The agenda contains nuclear stability, local weather change, and cyber safety. Earlier, the Kremlin employees acknowledged that the leaders of the 2 international locations are “unlikely to succeed in an settlement, however they nonetheless keep a realistic optimism about this assembly”.
That the connection between the US and Russia has fallen to freezing level, is well-known. Along with the verbal testing of one another, the 2 international locations are additionally competing in different areas reminiscent of army and finance. Simply yesterday (June 14), a brand new spherical of US sanctions in opposition to Russia got here into impact. The particular content material contains prohibiting US firms from shopping for Russian authorities bonds within the main market and Russian authorities bonds denominated in Euros. Contemplating that the secondary market has not been affected, this sanction measure is extra like a warning issued by the US to Russia following a collection of actions by the latter (1, 2).
As the US progressively tightened its sanctions in opposition to Russia, the latter had begun planning to “de-dollarize” earlier. Not solely the Central Financial institution of Russia, but additionally the nation’s Finance Minister Anton Siluanov lately acknowledged that “the US greenback property will likely be fully faraway from the Nationwide Wealth Fund inside the subsequent month ” [ data shows that as of March this year, Russian holdings of US Treasury bonds are as high as 3.976 billion US dollars].
The every day chart exhibits that after the monetary sanctions took impact, the US Greenback opened larger (highest 72.3475) after which declined (lowest 72.0180) in opposition to the Ruble to shut at 72.040. Immediately, the USDRUB forex pair continues to be within the doldrums (opened low and going decrease). On the time of writing, it’s at 71.7903. Within the quick time period, the pair remains to be in a downward development, whereas within the every day, H4 and intra day charts are all beneath stress and under the 100-day easy shifting common. Nonetheless, the weekly chart exhibits that the shifting common is positioned within the area of 71.3415 to 71.5787 (comparable to the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement stage from the low in January final yr to the excessive in mid-March,and the 161.8% Fibonacci extension on the every day chart.). This space plus the shifting common types a robust assist. If the draw back breakout is profitable, the forex pair can have the chance to check the second assist 70.0605 (200.0% Fibonacci extension stage), the psychological stage 70.0000 and the third assist at 68.8655.
In any case, contemplating that the oscillator indicators on the weekly and every day charts are approaching or are already within the oversold space (Stochastics has fashioned a golden cross), the short-term downward momentum of the trade price could also be hindered. Current resistance zone runs from 72.5013 as much as 72.9530 (Fibonacci 127.2% Fibonacci extension stage) space.
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