No one is aware of how this bull market will play out. Will we repeat the sample of 2013 and 2017 ? Is that this the supercycle to finish all cycles? Are we in a bear market now? Who is aware of. However personally, I believe it will play out just like the previous, with a blow-off-top adopted by a protracted bearish interval.
I’ve a plan, and I am certain I am not the one one interested by it (assuming we now have a increase and bust cycle):
Promote into stablecoins as close to the height as I can.
Park these stablecoins and earn curiosity on them for round a yr or extra.
Purchase again throughout the bear market, utilizing DCA.
Have extra crypto.
I used to be mendacity awake at evening interested by my plan an excessive amount of as a result of there are too many variables for my small mind to maintain monitor of. I’ve one easy query to reply:
How a lot bitcoin can I purchase again if I promote at <peak worth> and purchase again at <post-peak worth>?
This leads me to an entire host of variables, corresponding to:
– What might the height worth be?
– How a lot of a drop from mentioned peak might we see, 90% once more? Solely 50%?
– Based mostly on the drop in worth from the height, what would the precise worth be?
– How a lot of my holdings would I truly wish to begin promoting, what if I bought all, or half? What would the distinction be?
– What if I promote too early? What if I believe for instance I promote pondering $100k BTC is the highest however the market continues to rally above $300k? Will I nonetheless be capable of purchase again greater than I’ve bought?
– If I believe for instance BTC will attain $100k, at which worth level do I begin to promote? How a lot of a distinction will that make?
For my part, this bull cycle is a once-in-a-lifetime alternative to considerably improve my holdings and I don’t wish to mess it up and find yourself with lower than what I began with. That is why I made this ‘What-if’ Machine, basically to see simply how badly I’ve to misjudge the market to make a loss (by way of what I maintain).
It was driving me a bit loopy, so I made a calculator on Google Sheets to inform me what may occur given all of the completely different variables. I’ve discovered it fairly helpful and it was enjoyable to construct, and I’ve tried to make it as comprehensible and user-friendly as potential:
Word that I have never made it editable, please make your individual copy and have a play. That is on no account monetary recommendation, I’m not a mathematician and I’m not a dealer. I do know nothing about finance, I simply received a bit carried away making this and want to share my work with the neighborhood:
Let me clarify what we’re and the way you should utilize it. The thought is that you just tweak the BLUE cells (should you edit something aside from the blue ones, it received’t operate correctly). The blue cells on the left are the necessary ones, that’s the place you tweak your technique to see what impact it is going to have.
The calculator is split into 4 sections, and you’re employed from left to proper. You solely have to edit the and all the remaining is computerized. I’ve included some directions within the sheet however right here I will clarify in a bit extra depth:
– : There’s a drop-down menu to decide on the coin you are working with. This does not change something aside from the dialogues all through the sheet, so it does not actually matter what you select, it is going to work the identical, it simply offers good readable outputs. If the coin you are working with is not listed, you may simply kind it in. I’ve simply chosen the highest 20-ish cash from coinmarketcap.
– : That is mainly the value that you just suppose the coin can and can get to, your goal peak promote worth, typically I check with this because the ‘speculated peak’. As you may see in my sheet above, I am planning for BTC to hit $150k at its peak, and that is the place I wish to set my highest promote order.
– : Don’t be fooled, you have no idea, I have no idea, and no one is aware of what worth BTC will truly peak at. That is your first actual unknown variable. What should you promote your stack pondering $150k is the highest nevertheless it simply retains going? $200k… $300k? This determine is what you may tweak to see simply how badly you must get it incorrect earlier than you are at risk city, and threat shopping for again lower than what you began with. You’ll be stunned simply how incorrect you must get it. 😉
– % : I do not find out about you, however I plan on promoting in increments as much as my peak promote level, DCA in is necessary, simply as it’s to DCA out. This can be a subject that’ll simply make it straightforward to unfold out your promote factors primarily based on the utmost speculated peak. For instance, in case your most promote (‘what if I promote as much as a worth of’) level is $100k for simplicity, choosing 25% right here will begin promoting at $75k, and choosing 50% will begin it a $50k. Get it? If you wish to simply do it in a single promote, you may set this to 0% or alternatively simply have all of the blue cells within the ‘promote calculator’ part as 0 and solely fill the highest cell (I cowl this later).
– %: As soon as you have bought your stack into stablecoins, should you plan on parking them in some platform to earn curiosity, you may enter the APY fee of the platform right here, you may see within the BUYBACK CALCULATOR part, the curiosity earned over a interval of a most 2 years is damaged down into yearly quarters. You might wish to begin shopping for again after 3 months, or you could wish to begin shopping for again after 12 months, the calculator will allow you to see what that can imply, and the way a lot roughly in stablecoins you may have at that time. I would like to emphasise the APPROXIMATELY right here. The APY calculations are fundamental right here. I calculate what 10% APY (for instance) would earn over a yr, then divide that by 12, after which multiply by 3, 6, 9, and so on. It’s going to on no account be a very correct prediction of earnings and you must take into account this complete sheet a device for a ballpark solely, that can assist you sleep at evening, and is completely not monetary recommendation!
When you plan on promoting solely in a single transaction, you may both set the aforementioned subject to 0%, or you may go away all these cells as 0 and solely enter a worth for the highest one. Personally, I plan on promoting in increments and weighting extra in direction of the highest finish of my speculated peak. This part will present you what the value factors can be for promote orders, and the way a lot you may bag at every worth level, relying on what number of cash you promote at mentioned level.
The underside of this part will let you know the entire quantity of cash bought, what your common promote worth is and the way a lot in whole you may have in stablecoins after promoting.
That is the place you get the majority of your reply, in broad phrases. On the high, you may see how a lot curiosity your stablecoins could have earned you every quarter (primarily based in your APY % determine) and it’ll let you know what the value of the coin will likely be within the occasion of a 60, 70, 80, or 90% drop from its peak. Adjoining to this, you may see what number of cash you may purchase again at this worth level, primarily based on most stablecoin yield or zero stablecoin yields. The cool half about this part is it is going to flip purple when you find yourself at risk of creating again much less coin than you began with, which is the entire level of me making this factor within the first place. Strive it out, put in a method greater determine between your two worth predictions, and see how badly you must miss the mark earlier than you make a loss. There’s a broad vary displayed on the backside of this part to indicate on common how a lot you may be wanting to buy again.
) / :
This was a later addition, this allows you to slender down on some parameters to see a bit extra precisely (nonetheless very very approximate, this isn’t monetary recommendation). You’ll be able to tweak right here how lengthy you may be incomes curiosity at your outlined fee, and you’ll enter a selected worth for the coin, completely arbitrarily, and see how a lot you may purchase at that worth.