‘Conservative’ BTC supply shock metric now says Bitcoin should cost at least $55K

Bitcoin (BTC) ought to price a minimum of $55,000 per coin in response to one metric measuring its so-called “provide shock.”

In a tweet on Sep. 5, analyst Willy Woo highlighted what he added is a “conservative” worth estimate for BTC/USD.

Bitcoin worth performs catch-up with metrics

Whereas Bitcoin has nonetheless not established $50,000 as agency assist, on-chain metrics have been way more firmly bullish for a while.

Now, the so-called “provide shock valuation mannequin” has joined them, giving a conservative worth estimate of $55,000.

Provide shock is solely the unavailable BTC provide divided by the obtainable BTC provide. This goes deeper than at first look, as Woo makes use of it to successfully “wave a magic wand and gauge the intent of traders earlier than the bids and gives are even positioned.”

“On this view of demand and provide, an investor who has no intention to promote is on the demand facet whereas an investor who’s keen to promote is on the availability facet,” he defined in a weblog put up final month.

The valuation mannequin moreover makes use of an algorithm to match comparable provide and demand conditions to now, thus producing a good worth estimate.

“It is conservative as one of many SS metrics, change SS, is now above all-time-high so no look-back is feasible,” Woo acknowledged within the tweet, referring to the ratio of cash in chilly storage in comparison with on exchanges being at document ranges.

The accompanying chart captures when BTC worth moved with and with none shifts in investor intent.

Bitcoin provide shock valuation mannequin. Supply: Willy Woo/ Twitter

$50,000 first hurdle for bulls

Bitcoin provide shock is an oft-used phrase within the present market due to 2021 being the 12 months after a block subsidy halving occasion.

Associated: Extra like ‘shock-to-flow’ — BTC worth hits bull set off as thriller consumers scoop up provide

With miners now unlocking simply 6.25 BTC per block, to this point, Bitcoin has behaved broadly equally to earlier post-halving years — 2013 and 2017.

The conservative $55,000 minimal goal nonetheless stays above one other set of month-to-month shut minimums from analyst PlanB, who guesses that September may have a minimal month-to-month shut of $43,000.

Thereafter, nonetheless, upside resumes in earnest, with Bitcoin closing out 2021 on a minimum of $135,000.

On the time of writing, BTC/USD traded at $50,200, having stayed in a decent vary all through the weekend.

BTC/USD 1-day candle chart (Bitstamp). Supply: TradingView