3 Bitcoin trading behaviors hint that BTC’s rebound to $24K is a ‘fakeout’


Bitcoin (BTC) worth rallied towards $24,200 on July 28 after a near-10.5% surge that started a day earlier.

The positive factors appeared after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled intentions to decelerate the Fed’s prevailing tightening spree. This prompted some Bitcoin analysts to foretell short-term upside continuation, with pseudonymous analyst CryptoHamster seeing BTC at $26,000 subsequent.

However BTC’s potential to recuperate fully from its ongoing bearish slumber seems low for not less than three key causes.

Bitcoin bulls have been duped earlier than

Bitcoin established its report excessive of $69,000 in November 2022. Since then, the cryptocurrency has declined by greater than 60% whereas present process a number of mini pumps on its approach down. 

On the day by day chart, Bitcoin has rebounded not less than 5 instances since November 2021, securing 23%-to-40% positive factors on every restoration. Nonetheless, it has continued its correction each time after forming an area worth prime round its exponential transferring averages (EMA) after which falling to new yearly lows.

BTC/USD day by day worth chart that includes ‘fakeouts.’ Supply: TradingView

This time seems to be no completely different, with Bitcoin going through a bullish rejection in June and recovering practically 17% a month later. Notably, BTC worth faces interim resistance in its 50-day EMA (the crimson wave) at round $23,150, with a breakout clearing its approach towards $27,000, coinciding with the 100-day EMA (black).

At $27,000, the worth would nonetheless type a decrease excessive in comparison with the earlier native tops. So, that technically raises the opportunity of one other bearish continuation transfer.

Excessive promoting, low shopping for quantity

Curiously, the amount habits throughout the ongoing Bitcoin correction exhibits a better curiosity in promoting the coin at native tops.

The day by day chart under illustrates this by highlighting the amount readings throughout downtrends and uptrends since November 2021. As an illustration, the final two large worth declines in Might and June coincided with a pointy improve in promoting volumes.

BTC/USD day by day worth chart. Supply: TradingView

As compared, the follow-up rebounds to these worth declines accompanied modest to decrease buying and selling volumes. The continued quantity habits seems to be the identical, peaking throughout the downtrend and dropping as the worth recovers.

This means a weakening upside momentum, which can result in one other worth correction.

BTC to equities correlation flips again to constructive

Bitcoin is as soon as once more tailing inventory market tendencies regardless of briefly decoupling from them in early July.

As an illustration, on July 28, the day-to-day correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite stood close to 0.66. That features declines in each markets after the U.S. gross home product (GDP) plunged for a second consecutive quarter.

BTC/USD and NDAQ day by day correlation coefficient. Supply: TradingView

That formally confirms that the U.S. has entered a “technical recession,” which may weigh negatively on the inventory market. Subsequently, Bitcoin’s draw back prospects seem excessive if its constructive correlation with the inventory market continues.

The views and opinions expressed listed below are solely these of the creator and don’t essentially replicate the views of Cointelegraph.com. Each funding and buying and selling transfer entails danger, you need to conduct your personal analysis when making a call.